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【猪场复养时机银娱geg优越会谈】从乙脑疫苗使用看复养时机！

发布时间：

2021-12-13 00:00

作者：

技术部

猪价经历了大半年的低位震荡后，10月份猪价明显提振，那么很多人不禁要问，猪场复养时机是否已经到来了呢？

要回答这个问题，我们首先要根据可靠的资料，准确分析我国养猪业目前的现状。

01根据乙脑疫苗使用量变化趋势分析我国养猪行业现状

● 2018年8月份发生非洲猪瘟之后，存栏母猪显著下降，特别是2019年达到低谷，乙脑疫苗使用量也大幅度下降。

● 2020年1-12月份乙脑疫苗使用量同比提升高达160.9%，并且每个月乙脑疫苗的使用都出现明显增加，已经没有季节性规律了。根据猪乙脑使用量的变化判断2020年后备母猪留种率显著提高。

● 2021年第一季度母猪存栏继续增加；同年一季度乙脑疫苗使用量达到历史新高；三季度母猪存栏出现明显下降，同期乙脑疫苗使用量也从二季度开始逐渐下降。根据猪乙脑疫苗使用量变化判断2021年母猪淘汰比例增加。

2018-2021年乙脑疫苗季度销量统计

2018-2021年银娱geg优越会乙脑疫苗月度销量统计

02根据猪乙脑疫苗使用量变化趋势预测近期养猪业的发展

● 近期母猪淘汰的速度变缓；

● 近期部分规模化猪场有后备母猪大量补栏的情况；

● 整体来看，近期后备母猪补栏的速度也比较缓慢。

2018-2021年各月乙脑疫苗使用量变化曲线图

03根据猪乙脑疫苗使用量变化趋势预测未来复养的最佳时机

未来养猪业将如何发展？什么时候才是复养的最佳时机？

● 根据乙脑疫苗使用情况判断，大约还有23%的母猪群面临淘汰；

● 2022年1、2季度行情依旧处于低位震荡状态，猪价不会太高；

● 整个养猪行业形势变化的拐点将发生在2022年的下半年。

● 根据现有信息判断，猪场复产的时机最有可能出现在2022年年初。

● 当然也需要密切关注整个行业的动态变化，继续通过分析银娱geg优越会乙脑疫苗的使用量来判断整个养猪行业的发展态势。

总之，面对行业规律、和随时可能发生的变化，我们只能顺势而为，做好资金储备、人才储备、技术储备，提高生产力水平、管理水平、经营水平才是根本。用更多确定性的因素去迎接、规避不确定性的因素，挺过低谷，熬过“冬天”，一定会否极泰来，春暖花开！

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